Not Your Average Joe: Why Musgrove is a Perfect Fit for the Padres

As we approach Spring Training and the presumed start of the 2021 season, the Padres shockingly still have a hole in their pitching staff even after adding 2018 Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and two time Cy Young Award runner-up Yu Darvish. The most notable hole in the rotation is essentially the size of one pitcher as Blake Snell, Dinelson Lamet, Yu Darvish, and Chris Paddack make up four fifths of the 2021 Padres rotation. The Padres could be adding a high ceiling pitcher to the fifth and final spot of their rotation. The addition of Joe Musgrove solidifies an incredibly strong and deep pitching rotation. 

2020 was a small sample size from Musgrove, as it was for all players given the pandemic. He posted a 3.86 ERA, 12.48 K/9, and a 3.50 SIERA in 39.2 innings. These numbers are tantalizing in a small sample but we must develop a bigger sample size in order to get a better picture of who Joe Musgrove actually is. 

Since arriving in the Steel City, Musgrove has seen a steady increase in his K/9 rate, his fastball usage rate, and his home run to fly-ball ratio which has hovered around league average. Musgrove has been a frustrating pitcher as he has dealt with injury and lack of consistency for large chunks of his career. These numbers all could be reasons why A.J. Preller made the swap with Ben Cherington of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The peripheral statistics for Musgrove in 2020 paint a picture of a well above average arm. He was in the top 93 percentile in exit velocity, top 90th percentile in K%, and an expected slugging percentage in the top 88th percentile. If these statistics can be expound over a full season or even replicated to some extent, the Padres would be adding an elite pitcher. A question that could arise is, "How would Musgrove adjust to the hitter haven that Petco Park is?" We can look at Baseball Savant's expected home run tool. In 2019, Musgrove surrendered 21 home runs, about 1.7 less than his expected numbers. If he pitched all of his games at Petco Park, he would project to surrender 28 home runs. This number is skewed as it only takes into account stadium dimensions and not other key factors such as wall height and environment, but it would have placed him in a tie with Justin Verlander for tops of the league in home runs allowed. 

You may ask, "How do the Padres maximize the potential of Musgrove?", well I have some theories on how. When looking at the pitch mix for Musgrove, we see that he offers a 4 seam fastball, slider, curveball, sinker, changeup, and cutter in his repertoire. His fastball is his most used pitched but it also bears the worst results. In 2020, Musgrove's 4 seamer yielded a .324 BA and a .676 SLG. Those numbers are not great, but if we compare them to the expected stats, we see some bad luck for Musgrove. Musgrove's xBA was .295 and his xSLG was .491. These stats do add context but an argument can be made for Musgrove to rely more on his slider. The Padres' pitching coach Larry Rothschild loves to have his pitchers throw sliders, according to Sonny Gray, so why not make Musgrove throw even more sliders? His 2020 slider was nearly un-hittable with a .178 BA (.120 xBA), a .289 SLG (.170 xSLG), a .253 wOBA (.187 xwOBA) and a 32.6% Put Away percentage. 

After the additions of Blake Snell and Yu Darvish, the need for quality starting pitcher is still prevalent for the Padres. As the team increases their payroll, Musgrove is also a rather cheap option at $4,450,000 for the 2021 season. He is also under control by way of arbitration through 2022. Musgrove is 28 and would be 30 at the end of his team control tenure so this could be a classic cheap contractual value steal for San Diego.

Musgrove and the Padres could be an excellent match in 2021 and beyond. He slots in behind established ace level pitchers in Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Dinelson Lamet. He will also benefit from playing behind a very good defensive team as well as a highly potent offensive lineup. A change of scenery might just be what the doctor ordered for Joe Musgrove and as the fantasy baseball season approaches, buy as much stock in Musgrove as you can, the value is there. 

Slider image credit to Baseball Savant. Also credit to Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and Spotrac for statistical and contractual details. 

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Yankees get cute and squander Game 2

 The Yankees dropped game 2 to the Rays 7-5 and the ALDS is now locked at 1-1. 

Giancarlo Stanton continues to be red hot as he belted two more home runs one bigger than the other but it wasn’t enough for the Yankees. His hot hitting is a very good sign for things to come.

The Yankees went with Deivi Garcia as the starter but pulled him after 1 inning for JA Happ. The plan didn’t make much sense to  anyone except Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone. The move was done to have the Rays thrown off and maybe shuffle the lineup but they didn’t do that. They stood their ground and it worked. Happ went 2.2 innings giving up 4 runs. 

https://twitter.com/tomscibelli/status/1313702184157097985?s=21

I know everyone always wants to try and reinvent baseball these days and the opener and bullpen games is the new wave. The truth is they haven’t worked for anyone in the playoffs. The teams that have consistently done this haven’t won. The Rays have done it in the past successfully but they have better pieces to do it with. The Yankees didn’t have to do this. They could have went with Masahiro Tanaka or they could have just started Happ or Garcia from the beginning. When you watch Happ on the postgame you can tell he didn’t really buy into the plan. If you have a philosophy that the players don’t buy into then it’s not the philosophy to use. 

The Yankees tried to outsmart the Rays, they tried to be the smartest person in the room and in the end they only outsmarted themselves. If they lose this series everyone will comeback to game 2 and rightfully so. 

The Bronx Bombers Take Slam Diego

San Diego has quickly become the home of the grand slam in 2020 and Giancarlo Stanton wanted to feel comfortable in his new digs. Stanton and the Yankees steam rolled the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of the American League Division Series 9-3 on Monday night. The Yankees offense and pitching staff remained hot after a sweep of the Wild Card Series in Cleveland. 

The Yankee offense started the scoring right out of the gate with an Aaron Hicks RBI sacrifice fly to put the Yankees up 1-0. Gerrit Cole "toed the slab" for the Yankees and only had two blemishes. Randy Arozarena and Cole's arch-nemesis, Ji-Man Choi, homered off of Cole to account for all three of Tampa Bay's runs. Cole was not at the top of his game, but he still gave the Yankees 6 strong innings and he struck out 8 Rays. 

The Yankee offense was lead by the long ball as Clint Frazier, Kyle Higashioka, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton all homered. The blast by Stanton was the proverbial dagger as his ninth inning grand slam turned a 2 run game into a 6 run game with one swing. The Yankees saw contributions come from nearly all spots in the lineup and that is a great sign for the future games. The Yankees did end up using Chad Green and Zack Britton in Game 1, but they avoided using closer Aroldis Chapman which could be a factor as the series progresses. 

Game 2 will see a matchup of two young starters, which came as a shock to some. The Rays starter, Tyler Glasnow, was not the shocking selection as he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball during his tenure in Tampa Bay. Aaron Boone's decision to start 21 year old Deivi Garcia instead of Masahiro Tanaka raised some eyebrows. The Yankees essentially set their rotation to put Tanaka in a situation to clinch the series or to put the team up 2-1 in the series. Before Game 1 when the decision was announced, Tanaka could have been on the mound in Game 3 for a possible elimination game, but a Game 1 Yankee win took that out of the realm of possibility. 

The matchup will see two starters who love their curveballs. Glasnow throws his curveball 34.8% of the time, while Garcia throws his 14.5% of the time. Glasnow and Garcia not only differ in size as Glasnow towers over the diminutive Deivi Garcia, but the two also differ in what they throw. Glasnow has success with only 3 pitches, an elite 4 seam fastball, a curveball, and a changeup. Garcia also has a 4 seamer, changeup, and a curveball, but he also offers a slider. The Yankees offense has seemingly found a way to lay off the elite curveballs of Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco, and Blake Snell so far this postseason. If the Yankees can continue this approach, they may be able to chase the 6'8 starter from the game before he reaches his 5 inning average.

Game 2 is important, but maybe not as important had the Yankees lost Game 1. This should help Garcia relax and feel less pressure in his postseason debut. The Yankees will have to continue to work the pitch count of Glasnow just as they have done to the previous three pitchers they have faced. If the Yankees can get into the Rays pen for a second consecutive day, it could cause Tampa to rely heavily on starter Charlie Morton in Game 3. The Yankees seemed focused and non-sentimental in their postgame press conferences after a tone setting Game 1 victory. Game 2 should be another classic battle of two AL East rivals. 

Statistics courtesy of BaseballSavant.com

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Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez Come up Big for Yankees

 

Everyone will remember last night as the Gio Urshela game or the DJ LeMahieu game winning hit but some polarizing Yankees came up huge. 

Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez are always guaranteed to cause some debates on Yankee Twitter but last night their was no debate about how big they came up. Without their contributions the Yankees are gearing up for a game 3 winner take all with J.A. Happ on the mound. No one wanted the stress of another game tonight in rainy Cleveland. 

Let’s start with Giancarlo Stanton who was the DH and number 5 hitter last night. In game 1 Stanton had an ugly start to the postseason with two punch outs but launched a 9th inning homer to put the Yankees up 12-2. It wasn’t big in terms of the scoreboard but it seemed to loosen Stanton up. Alex Rodriguez said on the broadcast that it was a big hit for Stanton and they hopefully it could loosen him up. 

That seemed to be the case in game 2. After going down 4-0 right away Stanton delivered with a long home run. What he did in his next few at bats was maybe even more impressive. Stanton drew 2 walks laying off some tough pitches and passing the baton along to the next hitter. It was a bad day for Giancarlo Haters and a good day for the Yankees. 

https://twitter.com/adamschein/status/1311470188014055425?s=21

Gary Sanchez has been crushed for his offense and defense this season and maybe some of it has been warranted. Last night he shoved that aside and came up big. Yes he had a bad pass ball in the 9th but he also made a great stop in the 6th. Sanchez came up with a big two run go ahead home run. He also had a sac fly in the 9th to tie things up off Brad Hand who is known for tough breaking balls. 

With Gary Sanchez and Giancarlo Stanton clicking the lineup is as deep as ever. These are major developments for the Yankees and they need it to continue to beat the Rays. 

A Clean Sweep in Cleveland! Now a Trip to San Diego Awaits!

The Yankees rocked and rolled their way through Cleveland in a 2 game sweep in the American League Wild Card Series. A back and forth affair was one of the best postseason games we have ever seen so far in 2020. Rain, home runs, and lead changes defined Game 2, but most importantly, the Yankees came out as winners. 

The game started with not one, but two rain delays. First pitch was pushed back 50 minutes after there was not a drop of rain in Cleveland. As the first inning progressed, so did the rain. Masahiro Tanaka gave up one run before the delay and finished the inning surrendering four earned runs. Giancarlo Stanton was able to ignite the Yankee offense with a solo homer in the 2nd. The Yankees would take the lead on a Gio Urshela grand slam off of Cleveland's top relief pitcher, James Karinchak. The Yankees would tack on another run on a Stanton sac fly. Jose Ramirez responded with a two RBI double in the 5th. The Yankees released the Kraken as Gary Sanchez hit a two run home run to give the Yankees an 8-6 lead. This lead did not last long as Jordan Luplow tied the game in the 7th and Cesar Hernandez hit a go ahead RBI single in the 8th. In the ninth, the Yankees mounted a rally on walks and singles that allowed Gary Sanchez to tie the game and DJ LeMahieu to hit the game winning single. Aroldis Chapman picked up the win as he closed out the game and the series. The Yankees 10-9 win books them a trip to San Diego to face the Tampa Bay Rays.

This game can be defined as a total team effort, but Gio Urshela was the star tonight. Urshela was dominant with the bat and the glove against his former team on Wednesday night. Gio received the Yankees belt for his efforts and he was more than deserving of the honor. The lineup top to bottom had quality at bats which helped get them into advantageous counts to do damage. The Yankees looked extremely prepared to face a talented Cleveland pitching staff. This will have to continue against the Rays and their stable of arms that throw 98 mph. 

The rematch of the heated season series vs the Tampa Bay Rays will be must watch TV. Game 1 sees Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell square off in Petco Park. The Yankees will have the ability to clean the slate vs the Rays as they lost the season series eight games to two. The heated rivalry will provide non-stop entertainment but it is crucial for the Yankees to keep their cool, focus, and approach if they want to book a second consecutive ticket in the American League Championship Series. 

Make sure you follow us on Twitter @BombersBeat and @BomberBeat2 for up to the minute Yankees coverage. Also follow us on Instagram @Bombers_Beat. Go Yanks! 

The Cole Train Made a Stop in Cleveland, Now it is Tanaka Time

You can say that the Yankees have never spent $324 million better than spending big on Gerrit Cole. In his first playoff appearance in the Yankee road grays, Gerrit Cole sent a message, "The Yankees are still a force to be reckoned with." There was some doubt entering the game given the team the Yankees were facing and Yankees lackluster performance down the stretch, but the Yankees put up 12 runs in the home of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. Game 1 was billed as a classic pitcher's duel but only one ace showed up. 

The Yankees set the tone early, 4 pitches early, as DJ LeMahieu led the game off with a single and Aaron Judge took the first pitch that he saw out of the park for a 2-0 Yankee lead. 2-0 was just the start for the Bombers offense as Gleyber Torres would go yard in a perfect day at the plate. Luke Voit had an RBI double, Brett Gardner had 3 RBI with a double and a home run, and Giancarlo Stanton added an absolute missile of a home run in the ninth inning. The Yankees "flipped the switch" as many fans had been clamoring for. A rough end to the regular season was quickly forgotten tonight as the Bronx Bombers took their potent offense on the road and won Game 1 12-3. 

The Yankees will have to get back to work Wednesday night against Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco rounded into form in September with a 1.73 ERA and a .229 opponent batting average in his last 4 starts/26 innings pitched. Carrasco faced the Yankees in the 2017 ALDS and did not factor in the decision as the Yankees won on a Greg Bird solo home run off of Andrew Miller. Carrasco did shut down the Yankee offense for 5.2 innings and struck out 7 in the raucous Yankee Stadium environment. The Yankees counter with Masahiro Tanaka or "Playoff Tanaka" as he is known when the calendar enters late September and October. 

Tanaka finished the month of September with a 3.09 ERA and a .221 opponent batting average in his final 23.1 innings pitched. Tanaka seems to take his game to a new level in the postseason as he has a career 1.76 ERA in 46 postseason innings. The Yankees will need Tanaka to continue his postseason prowess in order to close out the Indians and move onto the ALDS. If Tanaka stumbles, a rested bullpen awaits in right center field to put out any potential fires. 

The Yankee offense clearly exploded for 12 runs against a playoff novice in Shane Bieber. A veteran starter in Carrasco could pose a different challenge for the Yankees. Carrasco has a higher average velocity on his fastballs compared to Bieber and Carrasco has a more efficient spin rate on his curveball as opposed to Bieber's. Bieber struggled to locate his breaking stuff which helped the Yankees crush his near league average fastball. The Yankee approach should be similar to what we saw on Tuesday but I do not expect Carrasco's stuff to be as non-competitive as Bieber's was. 

This is a crucial game and one that the Yankees should treat as an elimination game. The lack of off days in the ALDS and ALCS will be a challenge if they reach those games. A Game 2 win and an elimination of Cleveland would help the Yankees rest and prepare for their next opponent. Also a winner take all Game 3 is something that many Yankee fans would not appreciate this early on in an October journey that is supposed to end with a trophy. 

Statistics courtesy of BaseballReference.com, BaseballSavant.com and Fangraphs.com 

Make sure you follow us on Twitter @BombersBeat and @BomberBeat2 for up to the minute Yankees coverage. Also follow us on Instagram @Bombers_Beat. Go Yanks! 

Welcome to the 2020 Postseason

Well.... we made it! The Yankees, Major League Baseball, and its fans have made it to the postseason. This sounded far-fetched in May but after a 60 game sprint, the Yankees have a spot in the dance. The 2020 Yankees, much like most of us in the year 2020, faced hardships and obstacles along the way. As we reflect on the regular season and look forward to the postseason the goal remains the same as every year, win a championship.

July 23rd was the beginning of the Gerrit Cole era in Yankee Universe and he delivered a rain shortened complete game win. This set the tone for the Yankees 16-6 run led by Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and DJ LeMahieu. This was quickly followed up by a 5-15 stretch which was headlined by injuries to Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, James Paxton, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, and Tommy Kahnle. As the injured began to return so did the elite play as the team rattled off a 10 game win streak and looked poised to reclaim their spot at the top of the American League mountain. The Yankees would finish 2-6 in their final 8 games which barely got them the 5th overall seed in the American League playoff picture and a matchup with the Cleveland Indians. 

Tuesday at 7 pm EST at Progressive Field is when the 2020 Yankee season actually begins. Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber will face off in Game 1 of the best of 3 Wild Card Series. The Yankees enter with more questions than answers but a good team can throw away their inconsistent regular season to move on to the fresh slate that is the postseason. Game 1 will be the most important game for the 2020 Yankees and it could shed a light on what to expect from this team as October moves on. 

When we look who the Yankees will face its best to prepare yourself for an all time pitchers duel. Shane Bieber is the presumptive American League Cy Young winner and possibly the American League Most Valuable Player. He led AL pitchers in wins, strikeouts, ERA, fWAR, and Fielding Independent Pitching. "The Biebs", as he is affectionately known as, has been next to unhittable but that does not mean the Yankees should be scared. The 2017 Yankees faced a similar opponent in the ALDS in Corey Kluber. Kluber was the AL Cy Young Winner in 2017 and in a must win Game 5 the Yankees chased Kluber after 3.2 innings, 3 earned runs, and 2 home runs allowed. Whether fans want to admit it or not, the home run ball is the key for the 2020 Yankees winning this series and every series going forward.

This team is built to hit home runs after players like LeMahieu and Hicks get on base. Though Bieber had a 0.81 HR/9 allowed this season, a change in approach to become a team that hits for singles and packs the bases is not the answer. Bieber stranded 91.1% of runners that reached base which adds even more emphasis to the home run ball. Basically, make Bieber work and be the Bronx Bombers that hit over 300 home runs in 2019. 

Gerrit Cole will have to work his way through a rather top heavy Cleveland lineup. The top five hitters of Cesar Hernandez, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, and Franmil Reyes account for majority of Cleveland's offense. Cole was masterful during the month of September as he pitched to a 1.00 ERA, 34 strikeouts, 5 walks, and a .147 batting average against. These numbers are reminiscent of the Gerrit Cole that the Yankees spent $324 million on in the offseason. If Gerrit Cole is on his game from the jump, the Cleveland offense is going to be in for a long night. 

Inconsistent is the word to describe the 2020 New York Yankees, but all will be forgotten with a successful postseason run. Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Adam Ottavino, and Giancarlo Stanton can shake up and down regular seasons with a month of elite play. The Yankees as a collective unit know they are closer to the 16-6 and 10-0 team than they are the 5-25 and 2-6 team. If this team can turn the page and play like they were expected to in the preseason, then there is no doubt in my mind that they will be the last team standing in late October. Conversely, if the last 8 games were just a precursor to what is to come, then this team will be lucky to get to the ALDS. 

This will be a different postseason for a number of reasons, the Yankees will not play in the Bronx this postseason, there will be no fans until possibly the World Series, and there are 16 teams vying for a championship. This will be a quick, but wild ride through the month of October. As every Yankee fan anxiously waits for tomorrow night at 7pm, remember the wild ride this team took us on in 2020 and hopefully the wild ride concludes with a socially distanced parade down the Canyon of Heroes.  

Statistics courtesy of BaseballReference.com and Fangraphs.com 

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