Not Your Average Joe: Why Musgrove is a Perfect Fit for the Padres

As we approach Spring Training and the presumed start of the 2021 season, the Padres shockingly still have a hole in their pitching staff even after adding 2018 Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and two time Cy Young Award runner-up Yu Darvish. The most notable hole in the rotation is essentially the size of one pitcher as Blake Snell, Dinelson Lamet, Yu Darvish, and Chris Paddack make up four fifths of the 2021 Padres rotation. The Padres could be adding a high ceiling pitcher to the fifth and final spot of their rotation. The addition of Joe Musgrove solidifies an incredibly strong and deep pitching rotation. 

2020 was a small sample size from Musgrove, as it was for all players given the pandemic. He posted a 3.86 ERA, 12.48 K/9, and a 3.50 SIERA in 39.2 innings. These numbers are tantalizing in a small sample but we must develop a bigger sample size in order to get a better picture of who Joe Musgrove actually is. 

Since arriving in the Steel City, Musgrove has seen a steady increase in his K/9 rate, his fastball usage rate, and his home run to fly-ball ratio which has hovered around league average. Musgrove has been a frustrating pitcher as he has dealt with injury and lack of consistency for large chunks of his career. These numbers all could be reasons why A.J. Preller made the swap with Ben Cherington of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The peripheral statistics for Musgrove in 2020 paint a picture of a well above average arm. He was in the top 93 percentile in exit velocity, top 90th percentile in K%, and an expected slugging percentage in the top 88th percentile. If these statistics can be expound over a full season or even replicated to some extent, the Padres would be adding an elite pitcher. A question that could arise is, "How would Musgrove adjust to the hitter haven that Petco Park is?" We can look at Baseball Savant's expected home run tool. In 2019, Musgrove surrendered 21 home runs, about 1.7 less than his expected numbers. If he pitched all of his games at Petco Park, he would project to surrender 28 home runs. This number is skewed as it only takes into account stadium dimensions and not other key factors such as wall height and environment, but it would have placed him in a tie with Justin Verlander for tops of the league in home runs allowed. 

You may ask, "How do the Padres maximize the potential of Musgrove?", well I have some theories on how. When looking at the pitch mix for Musgrove, we see that he offers a 4 seam fastball, slider, curveball, sinker, changeup, and cutter in his repertoire. His fastball is his most used pitched but it also bears the worst results. In 2020, Musgrove's 4 seamer yielded a .324 BA and a .676 SLG. Those numbers are not great, but if we compare them to the expected stats, we see some bad luck for Musgrove. Musgrove's xBA was .295 and his xSLG was .491. These stats do add context but an argument can be made for Musgrove to rely more on his slider. The Padres' pitching coach Larry Rothschild loves to have his pitchers throw sliders, according to Sonny Gray, so why not make Musgrove throw even more sliders? His 2020 slider was nearly un-hittable with a .178 BA (.120 xBA), a .289 SLG (.170 xSLG), a .253 wOBA (.187 xwOBA) and a 32.6% Put Away percentage. 

After the additions of Blake Snell and Yu Darvish, the need for quality starting pitcher is still prevalent for the Padres. As the team increases their payroll, Musgrove is also a rather cheap option at $4,450,000 for the 2021 season. He is also under control by way of arbitration through 2022. Musgrove is 28 and would be 30 at the end of his team control tenure so this could be a classic cheap contractual value steal for San Diego.

Musgrove and the Padres could be an excellent match in 2021 and beyond. He slots in behind established ace level pitchers in Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Dinelson Lamet. He will also benefit from playing behind a very good defensive team as well as a highly potent offensive lineup. A change of scenery might just be what the doctor ordered for Joe Musgrove and as the fantasy baseball season approaches, buy as much stock in Musgrove as you can, the value is there. 

Slider image credit to Baseball Savant. Also credit to Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and Spotrac for statistical and contractual details. 

Follow us on Twitter @BombersBeat and on Instagram @Bombers_Beat